The study of Chuck Connell has been replicated for the Netherlands.
His main findings were
- The longer the stretch of rain, the more likely it is to rain the next day
- The results also prove a prediction from global warming models — there is more rain now than in previous years.
Method
I used Python to analyse the data. I used the code of Chuck as base, I optimized it and made it more pythonic (with the help of ChatGPT)and added some things.The interface and output is done with Streamlit and Plotly.
- The code can be found here : https://github.com/rcsmit/streamlit_scripts/blob/main/show_knmi.py (function “does_rain_predict_rain)
- The interactive page: https://knmi-rcsmit.streamlit.app/ (Modus = “does rain predict rain”, set start date at 1906–01–01)
Data
The data is coming from the KNMI, (The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute),the Dutch national weather service. The station is “De Bilt”, in the center of the country and representative and has one of the longest data, The data starts at 1–1–1906. In april 1945, there is no data available, this has been replaced by 0.
The URL to access the data is https://www.daggegevens.knmi.nl/klimatologie/daggegevens?stns=260&vars=TEMP:SQ:SP:Q:DR:RH:UN:UX&start=19060101&end=20230812 (adjust the end date)
Results
Chuck found an effect (“the longer it has been raining (up to 7 days), the more rain is likely tomorrow.”). In The Netherlands we see this also but not as clear as he does
Conclusion
It rains a lot in the Netherlands.
There is no change visibible due to climate change